Unintelligent designs

The National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, has been widely queried. Instance the assertion that Iran stopped its military nuke program in 2003 due to pressure from 'the international community'. In 2003 the US deleted the fascist regime next door to Iran with WMD as a significant casus belli. That 'pressure' prompted Libya to de-nuke and, apparently, Iran too. A fair evaluation would be that removing Saddam prevented at least 3 of America's enemies from pursuing a military nuke program..Iraq,Iran and Libya. Suppose a Blixian inspection regime had kept Saddam bottled up indefinitely (far-fetched, but suppose), we now know that Iran and Libya had their own programs. So the collateral benefits of the Iraq war include some meaningful stiflement of the nuke ambitions of those terrorist regimes. Not bad.

This NIE may bring unforeseen consequences. At first the Baker Report seemed an efficient rebuke of the US infliction of raw power on its incalcitrant enemies. Appeasers wallowed in Baker's nostrums...'negotiate with Iran from a position of weakness' etc, but Baker marked a fork in the road; it brought into view the humiliation and danger of appeasement and surrender, while advocating those very things. The looming debacle of US defeat led to the Surge and that may lead to 'victory' and that may lead to a conservative President in 2009 and that may lead to 'we win, they lose' at a far lower cost than World War 3 against Islamofascism.

The NIE brings these truths hard up against our noses:

1. America's 'intelligence community' is unintelligent, waffling, inefficient and self-confessedly incapable of spying on crucial enemies. It needs scrapping and reforming under strong, patriotic, intelligent leadership which operates as tho America were in a life-or-death war.

2. Iran has run a military nuke program at least until scared off by the Iraq invasion. It may have re-started or it may be disguised within the technically ambiguous civilian program. The American 'intelligence community' hasn't a clue.

3. Iran may already have the ingredients for a nuke and, if not, it may buy them. American intelligence doesn't know and likely won't know when the chips are down.

A rational actor contemplating that lot would find that regime change in Iran is the least worst option. America can't risk being taken by surprise or getting drawn into a facedown with an enemy which may be a suicide bomber with nuclear bombs. The lack of good intelligence should force America to a more risk-averse, ie more threatening, posture than just whistling in the wind to find out whether Iran gets nukes. So, against intuition, the NIE may induce clear thinking and a steelier resolve. Moreover fixing Iran now sends an offer that's hard to refuse to future would-be threats like a desperate Chavez, an Islamofanatic Pakistan or nuked-up Norks. That is, "Don't raise the stakes, America doesn't bluff."

Update: The New York Sun:

when the historians look back on this period, they will see that by sabotaging our diplomacy, our intelligence analysts have clarified the choice before the free world — appeasement or war.

How I learned to stop worrying..

The US says that Iran hasn't been running a military nuke program since 2003 thanks to international pressure.

The assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate that represents the consensus view of all 16 American spy agencies, states that Tehran is most likely keeping its options open with respect to building a weapon, but that intelligence agencies "do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."

What a load of cobblers!

Bush and vice-president Dick Cheney have been claiming without equivocation that Tehran is bent on achieving a nuclear weapon, with the president warning in October of the risk of a third world war. They were briefed on the national intelligence estimate (NIE) on Wednesday.

Apart from the contradiction with previous Estimates and the appearance of a President at odds with his own Intel, this is likely a flock of arse-covering bureaucrats sticking their fingers in the wind and spinning an Estimate to cover their ignorance and save their careers in case of a Democrat President on top of a Democrat Congress. Note that Iran can just buy weapons grade plutonium off the shelf.

We continue to assess with low confidence that Iran probably has imported at least some weapons-usable fissile material, but still judge with moderate-to-high confidence it has not obtained enough for a nuclear weapon. We cannot rule out that Iran has acquired from abroad—or will acquire in the future—a nuclear weapon or enough fissile material for a weapon.

The WMD is the regime. Ayatollahs delendi sunt.

P.S.16 spy agencies?!*!?

P.P.S. Powerline: "I assess with moderate to high confidence that the CIA is a joke."

The savages are revolting!

A British citizen is in a spot of bother in Sudan. She 'insensitively' allowed a 7 yo pupil to name a teddy bear 'Muhammed' after himself.

"Spitting hatred, thousands of hardline Islamists called for British teacher Gillian Gibbons to be shot yesterday."

We should send the Royal Navy to let the Islamosavages know that bad acts have bad consequences. Oh, wait...

Correlation is not causation, but..

Let's see:

Conservatives give more;
Conservatives have better mental health.

Correlation is not causation, but we must conclude that generous, sane people tend to be conservative.

Low news and new lows

"Fed Official’s Remarks Send Stocks Soaring"
But there was one exception:

The real feminists

“The American feminist movement has not taken one stand to support the women of Iraq, the women of Afghanistan, the women of Iran,” she said. “It is the United States Marines who have been doing the feminist work by liberating women and children around the world.” Tammy Bruce

Meet Spencer

Our house in NJ is full of Thanksgiving visitors - dogs, children, adults and Spencer. Spencer is a computer-driven plastic thing which acts like a baby at pre-programmed hours of night and day. He or she is the creature of a young lady niece who tends to Spencer's needs for the sake of a high school grade in Homuncular Biology or something. I think Spencer is creepier than cuddly and watching Spencer getting serviced is like watching a witch's rite. Uneasiness with Spencer correlates to age in our family. The younger females speak of this gremlin as tho he were a real child. Eeeek!

I guess I'll see you in another lifetime

'Birth' is an underrated movie. It's both intimate and detached. Some scenes (the opening run thru wintry Central Park, the 'Valkyrie' Prelude scene, the heartbreaking beach scene to close) will become famous as the images sink in; such stuff as dreams are made on.

Intellectual disgrace

Colin Powell in Kuwait:

Asked if he sees a U.S. war on Iran coming, the retired U.S. general said although no American official will say the option was "off the table," he did not see prospects of a military conflict.

There is no base of support among Americans for such an action, Powell said, adding that the U.S. military already has enough on its hands in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I say Powell is wrong on all counts, but suppose he's right, then here's what he's telling Iran:

The US President is bluffing. Go ahead and call him.

Here's what he's telling Saudi Arabia:

The US President is bluffing. He can't stop Iran. You'd better find your own deterrent.

The best railway station in the world

I prefer the US version of the TV comedy 'The Office', set in Scranton, PA, a town dubbed "armpit of America". I'm not so sure about "armpit"... these ex-industrial downtowns look and feel pretty copacetic when injected with a little life and love; Asheville, NC, for instance. The original 'The Office' is set in the English town of Slough, which you fly by 5 minutes before landing at Heathrow. Slough is an archetype of the British gift to the world known as "crap towns".

Come friendly bombs and fall on Slough!
It isn't fit for humans now,
There isn't grass to graze a cow.
Swarm over, Death!

Come, bombs and blow to smithereens
Those air -conditioned, bright canteens,
Tinned fruit, tinned meat, tinned milk, tinned beans,
Tinned minds, tinned breath....

'Slough' by John Betjeman (1937)

John Betjeman was a champion of Victorian architecture, when that style was despised as pastiche Gothic, obsolescent, fussy and unmodern, fit only for demolition to make space for '60's and '70's brutalism. Boy, was he ahead of his time.

He campaigned to save St Pancras, a decrepit Victorian railway station. Betjeman is dead. St Pancras is re-born as the London terminus of Eurostar, the 2 hour train service between London and Paris. St Pancras is said by the head of French rail to be possibly the best station in the world. Also 

St Pancras is gorgeous. Some of it is almost lickable.....St Pancras is Betjeman's. His statue stands in pride of place above the undercroft, a few steps away from the old booking office. A pointy bronze overcoat flaps behind him in the non-existent breeze, as he tips his head back to stare in awe and wonder at the magnificent ceiling. A swirl of poetry spins around his feet, with additional lines and verses etched into the paving slabs nearby. He looks both delighted and startled to be here, as do we who follow in his footsteps. We wouldn't be standing here today without him. There'd probably be a ghastly identikit office block on site by now had he not stepped in during the 1960s and raised his voice for posterity. Thank you Sir! 21st century London will be forever in your debt.

 Also

Next door, at King's Cross station, Hogwarts Express may depart from Platform 9 3/4 but Harry Potter fans will be fascinated to know that it is the stunning Victorian gothic architecture of St Pancras that is used in the films. St Pancras Station and St Pancras Chambers have also featured in Batman Begins......

in which movie St Pancras is the set for Arkham Asylum for the Criminally Insane.Like Grand Central Station, St Pancras is a grandiose meeting place, a heavenly setting for a champagne bar. Unlike Grand Central, the railway engineering is for glorying in. 

What a happy ending! This:

instead of this:

In labour-saving homes, with care
Their wives frizz out peroxide hair
And dry it in synthetic air
And paint their nails.

Come, friendly bombs and fall on Slough
To get it ready for the plough.
The cabbages are coming now;
The earth exhales.

Footnote: I just realized that 1937 was the year of the German bombing of Guernica in the Spanish Civil War, perceived as the symbol of terror bombing of civilians. Betjeman's sly poem of that year therefore is spiked with extra acid. As contrast note Picasso's painting of the bombing of Guernica, his most famous if emotionally fraudulent work:

If you want peace, prepare for war

Drudge leads with DECISION TIME OVER IRAN THREAT

Iran has installed 3,000 centrifuges for enriching uranium - enough to begin industrial-scale production of nuclear fuel and build a warhead within a year, the UN's nuclear watchdog reported last night.

It's past time to hit Iranian nuclear facilities, air defences and air force. I think that Mick and Dave doubt that Bush will do it as he's a man of principle and won't start something that he won't be in office to see thru, but I guess that Bush's principles will lead him to strike Iran. It's risky, but less so than not hitting Iran in good time, as below:

Risk 1:  Iran gets nukes or just the practical knowhow or just the credible threat of having a nuke.

Risk 2: Bush defers the decision and his successor is an appeaser.

Risk 3: America's word carries no weight. That will invite horrors in future.

Risk 4: Iran's blatant acts of war against America in Iraq and terrorism against the world find no retribution, another come-on to horrors in future.

Risk 5: A deferred decision loses the moment when Brown's and Sarkozy's mood music is supportive and gives time to Russia, China, Iran, the IAEA, the Democrat Party and the MSM to frame a narrative starring America as the Big Bad Wolf and Iran as Little Red Riding Hood.