Musing on the New Hampshire Primary

As I watch this stuff and measure my perceptions against others', I have to admit that I'm an outlier. I just can't see how anyone, anyone cannot see what a phony McCain is, how old he acts, how snide his speech, how fake his smile. "My friends" spoken by McCain is just emetic. But I still tell myself I'm a prophet of The Wisdom of Crowds once the crowd digests the key information. The pack attack on Romney has divided him from the pack. The Romney/Huckabee-McCain interactions seemed those of adult to adolescent. So I forecast that many independents in NH will surge to Obama, others will be turned off McCain (and Huckabee) and conservatives will vote Romney. My wonkish interest exceeds that of the average primary voter, but I sense that this will be an upset for Mitt that will catapult him to the Nomination. If not, at least I'll better understand the lack of correspondence between The Wisdom Of Crowds and the wisdom of Mark. Eheu.

P.S. Now a Rasmussen poll taken after Saturday's pack attack but before Sunday's debate shows Romney catching up to a statistical tie with McCain. But note:
Rasmussen Markets data shows that John McCain has an 85.6% chance of winning in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney is given a 16.5% chance. The numbers referenced in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to [..] add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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