March 18, 2008

Tap, tap....tap, tap...

Well I'm tapping my fingers, waiting for the Fed, short Euro/$ with a just now tightened guaranteed stop @ 1.585 to enable me to sell again higher.

My forecast:

33% chance of 1% (100 basis point) rate cut -----> expected -------> some noise then down within a few days.

33% chance of > 1% -------> goes to $1.60+ very fast then the confirmation gets heavily sold within days or hours.

33% chance of < 1% -------> Euro down today, possibly hard down.


Update: Well it was a 75bp cut, but so far the Euro/$ level is about unchanged....I'd expected the Euro to be sold off.
Oh well, tight stop....75 points before it's hit.
I'd love to be in at the start of a major $ rally.

Update2: Some Euro weakness showing now as the Dow recovers fast from the smaller than expected rate cut. Of course what I'd like to do is stand up on my surfboard at the crest of an incipient $ wave. A long way to shore yet. The market's been so hurt by the dollar for years that it's taking a while to get the courage to be long it. My position is essentially another catch a falling knife trade like the NYT trade I lucked out with recently. Children, do not try this at home.

Update3 at the close: Today's Euro/$ range was 136.35 - 138.33, closing at the low. A good start. For my gamble that we're at the turning point of a 7-year trend to be correct we need to see a complete mindset change back towards the USA as the ultimate store of value. It's long odds against this as that turning point. Aesthetically I'd expect to see $1.60 first, but the Bear Stearns collapse may have signalled capitulation in a lot of markets as the underlying psychology gets wrenched around. Another day, another dollar.

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