July 14, 2008

Drilling thru stupidity

If offshore drilling would provide short-term relief at the pump or a long-term strategy for energy independence, it would be worthy of our consideration, regardless of the risks. But most experts, even within the Bush administration, concede it would do neither,'' Obama's campaign said in a statement today.

What follows is so obvious that it makes my eyes bleed to say it: present oil prices are high because people project expectations back into the present. The expectation is that Asian demand and the stupidity of American government will expand faster than the supply of oil. Should present actions overturn the future stupidity piece of expectations, then present prices would drop.

An analogy for a would-be Commander In Chief is: imagine you are fighting a terror campaign against America and getting terribly beaten and expect to get terribly beaten in future, then you'd stop now. But suppose America told you that in 6 months it may retreat from the battlefield, then rather than stop, you'd murder as hard as you can now to encourage America to decide to retreat. Altogether now, children and Nominees for the Presidency: " Long-term expectations dictate present choices and present prices".

Update: Aaaargh!
Speaker Nancy Pelosi released the following statement today on President Bush's announcement lifting the executive ban on drilling in protected coastal areas:

"Once again, the oilman in the White House is echoing the demands of Big Oil.

"The Bush plan is a hoax. It will neither reduce gas prices nor increase energy independence. It just gives millions more acres to the same companies that are sitting on nearly 68 million acres of public lands and coastal areas.

"If the President wants to bring down prices in the next two weeks, not the next two decades, he should free our oil by releasing a small portion of the more than 700 million barrels of oil we have put in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Present supply of crude oil is not tight (eg prompt prices are lower than forward prices), so to release SPR crude oil onto the market will merely increase the expectation of government stupidity and probably raise prices. The bs about big oil sitting on government land (she means the right to explore which has been bought in competitive auction and which expires) is refuted here.

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