I will wash myself in ten pound notes

If Romney wins the Presidency, I win about $40,000 as I bet £1,000 on Romney at 20-1. Since then Fred's eviscerated Huckabee:
..and now McCain's getting his clock cleaned by Limbaugh, Levin, and Santorum. Romney took his heaviest fire weeks ago and really that boils down to a single idea - that he's a flip-flopper (oh, and a Mormon). The flip-flop meme echoes the 2004 case against Kerry, which worked pretty well because it's true, but

Michigan Democrats should vote for Mitt Romney, because if Mitt wins, Democrats win. [says King Kos]

Democrats view Mitt Romney as weak? They're fooling themselves....Democrats will try to run the same "He's a flip-flopper" campaign that we successfully destroyed Kerry with, but there are some key differences here. John Kerry flipped, flopped, and flipped again. Mitt Romney has consistently shifted rightward throughout his career. John Kerry was an ugly, boring, dull, unlikeable man. Mitt Romney is an intelligent, articulate, likeable Conservative. Let Kos plan, it'll only hurt their chances in November.

Add that Romney's a Governor, Kerry's a Senator; Romney made his money, Kerry married his; Ann Romney is an asset, Teresa Heinz Kerry was a liability; Romney's right, Kerry's wrong. No contest.

In a long campaign substance has a way of working it's way through to the public consciousness despite the msm's bs, so my politics still boil down to "bet on the Mormon."

?

By what rationale do political opponents get to vote for the Republican or Democrat Nominee in some states ? In a tight race, as this may be on both sides, it's possible that the decisive votes for each party's nominee will come from the other side ! I hereby claim copyright to the comic and sinister possibilities of a plot based on this idea.

The last days of the Roman Empire

The full faith and credit of the United States ain't what they used to be and depend on my children and yours to honour our debts. I love my children, so making them pay for my fecklessness can't be bad. I feel the love. They'll feel the IRS tickling their collar. So pay no heed to the rating agencies or the comptroller general, after all our children will have learnt this life lesson from us: stick it on the next generation.

Back in London

Christmas present - a daughter is studying with Martin Amis and gave me a signed copy of my favourite novel :The view from my room at dawn:

What we know we know

One candidate..

..has most delegates to date
..has most votes to date
..has the most money
..isn't balding
..is a governor not a senator
..has self-control

but facts are deceptive as the Boston Globe points out in a news report:

Mitt Romney, unable to refocus his message and prove his authenticity to New Hampshire's fiercely independent and fiscally conservative voters, yesterday suffered a second defeat in six days, leaving his presidential campaign strategy in tatters.

Musing on the New Hampshire Primary

As I watch this stuff and measure my perceptions against others', I have to admit that I'm an outlier. I just can't see how anyone, anyone cannot see what a phony McCain is, how old he acts, how snide his speech, how fake his smile. "My friends" spoken by McCain is just emetic. But I still tell myself I'm a prophet of The Wisdom of Crowds once the crowd digests the key information. The pack attack on Romney has divided him from the pack. The Romney/Huckabee-McCain interactions seemed those of adult to adolescent. So I forecast that many independents in NH will surge to Obama, others will be turned off McCain (and Huckabee) and conservatives will vote Romney. My wonkish interest exceeds that of the average primary voter, but I sense that this will be an upset for Mitt that will catapult him to the Nomination. If not, at least I'll better understand the lack of correspondence between The Wisdom Of Crowds and the wisdom of Mark. Eheu.

P.S. Now a Rasmussen poll taken after Saturday's pack attack but before Sunday's debate shows Romney catching up to a statistical tie with McCain. But note:

Rasmussen Markets data shows that John McCain has an 85.6% chance of winning in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney is given a 16.5% chance. The numbers referenced in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to [..] add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

I'm gambling on the Mormon

I just got odds of 20-1 against Romney to win the Presidency. Maybe the UK bookie hadn't seen this from last night:

Iowa, my 2 cents

Hillary was repudiated across a broad spectrum on a heavy turnout. That's prophetic. Romney was beaten by an identity group voting en bloc against the grain of its main policy preoccupation, illegal immigration. That's a special case.

This is a good test for Romney, which I think he'll pass. Don't flail, show good humour, stay loosely presidential, rack up respectable scores in many states, let the reality of Huckabee or McCain concentrate conservative minds. That will do it in the absence of another capable, across the board conservative. There's no reason to take cues from the liberal media who fear and loathe Romney and want to brand him loser.

The odds against Romney winning the Presidency are 16-1. I'll take a piece of that. Compare 15/8 against Obama.

Fear and Loathing in London - movie review

Movie review for Sweeney Todd:

Sweeney slits throats,
Mrs Lovett cooks stiffs,
Pirelli's shaved close,
Judge Turpin damns kids.

The Beadle's shriek-whistle,
Sweeney's tipping contraption,
Meat pies and their gristle,
All give satisfaction,

But it's not for the queasy.
I'm slightly reserved about Johnny Depp
Who impersonates Sweeney
Without any depth,

Fear and Loathing in London,
Scissorhands in a slasher,
Willy Wonka with vengeance,
Jack Sparrow with razors.

His singing is honest
His acting's quite fine
But the role's painted on him
It's not from inside.

The pacing is spot on,
The visuals astonish,
2 thumbs up to Burton
And 3 thumbs to Sondheim.

LDS, RDS, bs

John Hawkins mocks Romney's alleged lachrymosity. Hawkins' Right Wing News was the second blog I read regularly. He's astringent and often objective, but his arguments against Romney are mostly bullshit. He suffers from RDS, Romney Derangement Syndrome, LDSophobia from an adherent of a competing faith. If Romney is the nominee. then RDS will flourish in that other competing faith, Atheism.

Bad botox day

To gloss on Mick's post on Hillary's bad botox day photo: voters consider whether it will be pleasant to view a face for the next 4-8 years. A weathered face is fine. A lined face is fine. A botoxed face like Pelosi's or Clinton's reminds me of official portraits of Mao, Stalin or Kim Il Sung. A deflated botox face like this reminds me of the Picture of Dorian Grey, corrupt.