March 31, 2008
Dogblogging
Here's an antidote to human cruelty. The term 'anthropomorphize' is often a misnomer. Seeing love, fear, playfulness etc in other species than homo sapiens isn't unscientific. That these are cross-species traits is self-evident to any mind free of the anthropocentrism that normalizes atrocities like vivisection.
March 30, 2008
Vroom vroom
The delight of the Eliot Spitzer story was seeing a Malvolioesque hypocrite get his comeuppance. The actual sex was banal as far as we know, lacking the absurd details that take the farce to another plane. British politicians have little quirks like toe-sucking or wearing a Chelsea soccer shirt - apologies if these are standard practices in northern Utah, no offence.
But, lo.. there comes a sex scandal worthy of the highest comic imagination. South Park, eat your heart out. It's this (do not open at work!)...
I'd say this is pretty good, but what takes it to comedy heaven is that Max Mosley is the son of Sir Oswald Mosley, founder of the British Union of Fascists whose blackshirts my grandfather fought in the East End of London in the 1930's. Mosley père was immortalised by P.G.Wodehouse as Sir Roderick Spode, leader of The Black Shorts, amateur dictator and designer of women's undergarments. Max Mosley's parents were married in Goebbels' home, A.Hitler in attendance. That gives a twist to the headline "F1 boss Max Mosley has sick Nazi orgy with 5 hookers."
Another teensy detail is that The News of the World (aka The News of the Screws) is owned by one Rupert Murdoch who also happens to own The Times which happens to be the subject of an unrelated libel suit by the FIA, run by....Max Mosley. The ss Mosley is holed below the waterline, but I hope she goes down all guns blazing. To adapt Wodehouse: You can be the boss of Formula 1 motor racing or you can star in a 5 hour video of a sadomasochistic Nazi sex orgy, but not both.
March 28, 2008
They make a nice couple
The sun rises earlier in London than in Utah, so let me get in first to say how much better my coffee and croissant tasted from reading this story about McCain and Romney campaigning together in Salt Lake City. The body language and mood music seem pretty good. Accounts of Romney suggest he's far more likeable close up than the slightly stiff public persona (I like stiff, but I'm repressed). Some contrast with Hillary/Obama! Guys, make a bitter old right-winger happy. I'll throw the confetti.
March 27, 2008
The Disgrace of Liberalism
I enjoyed this piece for its long perspective and quality invective. Extracts:
The chief puzzle concerning Hillary is how, being so blatantly what she is, she succeeds in holding onto any support whatsoever. There's a process in quantum mechanics called "renormalization", in which certain quantities with values of infinity are arbitrarily dropped back to a more manageable "zero" for the sake of solving the equation. This encapsulates Hillary's political career: truly mindboggling levels of corruption and ineptitude have been continually renormalized by fellow politicians and the media to enable her to survive. These people made a particular type of bargain when they bent the rules for Hillary. Now the ground is opening up under their feet....
Obama has ascended on a cloud of pure moral superiority and nothing else....
That's the Democratic Party [....a] party whose entire leadership cadre, including presidential candidates, state governors, and Congressional leaders, are corrupt or incompetent or both, a party more suitable to ruling a Balkan or Central African peapatch than the world's reigning superpower.
March 26, 2008
What's that trampling sound?
In Missouri McCain's gone from level with Obama to a 15 point lead in a month:Missouri is a classic swing state in Presidential Elections that almost always awards its Electoral College Votes to the candidate who wins thePastor Wright ain't gonna go away. Profane audiobooks ain't gonna go away. Liberal voting record ain't gonna go away. Clintonian Machiavellianism ain't gonna go away. Zilch executive credentials ain't gonna go away. Surrender monkeyism ain't gonna go away.
McCain will massacre Obama and liberals must be starting to get it, but it's too late. I feel their pain..exquisite.
Chris Matthews is right
The Clintons are now campaigning for McCain:
Unless the Clintons have a secret weapon against Obama (four in a bed?), Hillary's doomed in 2008, so their only hope for 2012 is that Obama loses this time. Hence the cooing noises about McCain. I guess the Clintons' core constituencies now are middle aged white women, Hispanics and union members. Blacks, youth and elites swoon for Obama. The Clintonian voters could well be swayed to McCain and Bill's silky tongue may work magic for a more substantial candidate than his wife, making it respectable for a Democrat to vote McCain. The game then is to isolate Obama from middle America, red and blue, so that he's massacred in the general election and out of the running in 2012. Since Obama is fluff at best, I think it's likely he'll lose nearly every state as the nominee of a divided party. If the rest of the Democratic field in 2012 is as weak as 2008, Hillary stands a good chance of gaining the nomination after 4 more years of high profile Senate work probably co-operating with McCain.
Unless the Clintons have a secret weapon against Obama (four in a bed?), Hillary's doomed in 2008, so their only hope for 2012 is that Obama loses this time. Hence the cooing noises about McCain. I guess the Clintons' core constituencies now are middle aged white women, Hispanics and union members. Blacks, youth and elites swoon for Obama. The Clintonian voters could well be swayed to McCain and Bill's silky tongue may work magic for a more substantial candidate than his wife, making it respectable for a Democrat to vote McCain. The game then is to isolate Obama from middle America, red and blue, so that he's massacred in the general election and out of the running in 2012. Since Obama is fluff at best, I think it's likely he'll lose nearly every state as the nominee of a divided party. If the rest of the Democratic field in 2012 is as weak as 2008, Hillary stands a good chance of gaining the nomination after 4 more years of high profile Senate work probably co-operating with McCain.
March 25, 2008
Revenge is a dish best eaten cold
A riposte to Hillary Clinton's lies about sniper fire in Bosnia:
General Petraeus may allow himself a quiet smile.
General Petraeus may allow himself a quiet smile.
March 22, 2008
An actor and a theatre major
Paul Scofield died. I saw him in King Lear and the film of that production is beyond price. It is modest, transparent and to the point, high praise for a treatment of such a text. Similar theatrical virtues were practised in Nicol Williamson's Hamlet. Both are available on DVD through Amazon UK and/or US.
Last night I watched a spellbinding talk about his book, House to House, by former Staff Sergeant, former theatre major, David Bellavia. The book describes the US assault on Fallujah. It's not a cheap shot to require that the Commander-In-Chief be not unworthy of such men.
March 18, 2008
Tap, tap....tap, tap...
Well I'm tapping my fingers, waiting for the Fed, short Euro/$ with a just now tightened guaranteed stop @ 1.585 to enable me to sell again higher.
My forecast:
33% chance of 1% (100 basis point) rate cut -----> expected -------> some noise then down within a few days.
33% chance of > 1% -------> goes to $1.60+ very fast then the confirmation gets heavily sold within days or hours.
33% chance of < 1% -------> Euro down today, possibly hard down.
tap,tap...tap,tap..
Update: Well it was a 75bp cut, but so far the Euro/$ level is about unchanged....I'd expected the Euro to be sold off.
Oh well, tight stop....75 points before it's hit.
I'd love to be in at the start of a major $ rally.
Update2: Some Euro weakness showing now as the Dow recovers fast from the smaller than expected rate cut. Of course what I'd like to do is stand up on my surfboard at the crest of an incipient $ wave. A long way to shore yet. The market's been so hurt by the dollar for years that it's taking a while to get the courage to be long it. My position is essentially another catch a falling knife trade like the NYT trade I lucked out with recently. Children, do not try this at home.
Update3 at the close: Today's Euro/$ range was 136.35 - 138.33, closing at the low. A good start. For my gamble that we're at the turning point of a 7-year trend to be correct we need to see a complete mindset change back towards the USA as the ultimate store of value. It's long odds against this as that turning point. Aesthetically I'd expect to see $1.60 first, but the Bear Stearns collapse may have signalled capitulation in a lot of markets as the underlying psychology gets wrenched around. Another day, another dollar.
My forecast:
33% chance of 1% (100 basis point) rate cut -----> expected -------> some noise then down within a few days.
33% chance of > 1% -------> goes to $1.60+ very fast then the confirmation gets heavily sold within days or hours.
33% chance of < 1% -------> Euro down today, possibly hard down.
tap,tap...tap,tap..
Update: Well it was a 75bp cut, but so far the Euro/$ level is about unchanged....I'd expected the Euro to be sold off.
Oh well, tight stop....75 points before it's hit.
I'd love to be in at the start of a major $ rally.
Update2: Some Euro weakness showing now as the Dow recovers fast from the smaller than expected rate cut. Of course what I'd like to do is stand up on my surfboard at the crest of an incipient $ wave. A long way to shore yet. The market's been so hurt by the dollar for years that it's taking a while to get the courage to be long it. My position is essentially another catch a falling knife trade like the NYT trade I lucked out with recently. Children, do not try this at home.
Update3 at the close: Today's Euro/$ range was 136.35 - 138.33, closing at the low. A good start. For my gamble that we're at the turning point of a 7-year trend to be correct we need to see a complete mindset change back towards the USA as the ultimate store of value. It's long odds against this as that turning point. Aesthetically I'd expect to see $1.60 first, but the Bear Stearns collapse may have signalled capitulation in a lot of markets as the underlying psychology gets wrenched around. Another day, another dollar.
Exchange with a bearish banker
Email exchange this morning - I'll leave in the jargon for flavour:
Me: I've shorted Euro/$ here ahead of the Fed for the possibility of a gap down if very aggressive rate cut expectations aren't met. Also I feel the Goldman Sachs' results are somewhat calming and may encourage the Fed to stay calm.
He: This is just the financial scare as a result of initial writedowns, real problem will be when the data turns bad. If you get payrolls print at -200k then you'll get some panic, more defaults, more writedowns, lowerequities etc etc. I don't see how this could end here.
Me: Well, calling the bottom is foolish, but there are plenty of positive signs:
-Bear Stearns handled swiftly without caving in to moral hazard.
-GS and others bouncing off long-term technical supports.
-McCain looking stronger in the polls - this factor is too little weighed in the conscious market. A big government left-winger is the last thing the markets need.
-Euro way overvalued for PPP* (tho I accept other reasons why Euro has/may appreciate).
-Gold at $1,000 / Oil at $110 / Euro at $1.58 /Yen < 100 / CHF and loonie reached $ parity.
In other words there's tremendous amount of $ and market bearishness priced in.
Dangerous to extend the trend at this point. If the Fed cuts a mere 75bp today the Euro might drop and the market might leap on the basis that the Fed's confident and the credit crisis is getting fixed. Once the credit market starts moving there'll be a buying frenzy.
Stay nimble. A banker can get bamboozled by knowing too much.
*PPP = purchasing power parity
He: Give them job losses and recession, which is surely where the numbers will say we are next month, then you'll see the real panic.
The problem is if the fed does 75, then next week there's a lack of confidence and the market sells off, the fed's run out of ammo. Then you get panic..
Me: I've shorted Euro/$ here ahead of the Fed for the possibility of a gap down if very aggressive rate cut expectations aren't met. Also I feel the Goldman Sachs' results are somewhat calming and may encourage the Fed to stay calm.
He: This is just the financial scare as a result of initial writedowns, real problem will be when the data turns bad. If you get payrolls print at -200k then you'll get some panic, more defaults, more writedowns, lowerequities etc etc. I don't see how this could end here.
Me: Well, calling the bottom is foolish, but there are plenty of positive signs:
-Bear Stearns handled swiftly without caving in to moral hazard.
-GS and others bouncing off long-term technical supports.
-McCain looking stronger in the polls - this factor is too little weighed in the conscious market. A big government left-winger is the last thing the markets need.
-Euro way overvalued for PPP* (tho I accept other reasons why Euro has/may appreciate).
-Gold at $1,000 / Oil at $110 / Euro at $1.58 /Yen < 100 / CHF and loonie reached $ parity.
In other words there's tremendous amount of $ and market bearishness priced in.
Dangerous to extend the trend at this point. If the Fed cuts a mere 75bp today the Euro might drop and the market might leap on the basis that the Fed's confident and the credit crisis is getting fixed. Once the credit market starts moving there'll be a buying frenzy.
Stay nimble. A banker can get bamboozled by knowing too much.
*PPP = purchasing power parity
He: Give them job losses and recession, which is surely where the numbers will say we are next month, then you'll see the real panic.
The problem is if the fed does 75, then next week there's a lack of confidence and the market sells off, the fed's run out of ammo. Then you get panic..