1.The present optics of Obama in Hawaii giving spastic interviews to Marie-Claire while Georgia burns and McCain's ads drill into liberal insecurities, them optics is bad. Everyone can see the Clintons despise Him. Therefore I forecast the next polls will show McCain ahead.
2. Liberals can be rational actors. They ditched Dean for the less histrionic Kerry. It would be irrational to gamble the next 4, maybe 8 years of the Presidency on an untested, gaffe-prone, poor debater with terrible baggage who already lags his aged, grumpy opponent in the polls according to my thesis, while the Comeback Couple are tapping their toes at the edge of the spotlight. Man, they won elections and didn't get us killed in office. Man. Bill's blacker than Obama. Man, that Hillary is tough. Maybe this is the time for a pantsuit rather than a pantiwaist. Therefore, I predict an overt attempt to ditch Obama for the Clintons. James Carville, say, could throw a pebble to start a landslide.
My brain says, please keep Obama, he'll be squished in November. My mean streak says, squish him now.
Update: La Huffington frets and she loves the guy:
After a primary campaign in which the Obama camp skillfully went right at Hillary Clinton's strength -- her experience -- and used it to paint her as an entrenched, part-of-the-problem D.C. insider, it's been shocking to watch Team Obama cede to McCain national security and the war on terror -- his supposed strengths.
Making matters worse, they've taken this approach while McCain's Rove-trained message mavens have succeeded in turning one of Obama's real strengths into a negative - continuously reframing the fact that Obama is popular as just empty celebrity.
It's absurd, but it's worked. At least for the moment. Meanwhile, the public's perception of McCain as "ready to lead" on national security issues sits there, untouched.
...come November, national security will once again trump every issue...