The Rude and Uglies

Mitt, good morning. Here's why you can be President and I can't: you could refrain from kicking Glen Johnson in the teeth when he sneered at you from his throne on the floor. You have nice teeth, by the way, but I notice from the Johnson video a slight roundness of the shoulders which doesn't match the heroic hair. Pad up, man! Think Buzz Lightyear. Watching it again, maybe if you had kicked his teeth out, you'd have won the Nomination on the spot and probably stopped Iran in its tracks too.

I do enjoy how you lure the Rude and Uglies to puff themselves up with self-importance to the point where they go pop. Here's an oldie but goldie:

Michigan Primary: bet by bet

It's 25 minutes before polls close. As well as $2,000 on Romney for President at 20/1 I have $500 on Romney for Nominee at 15/2.

The odds have shortened to 12/1 for President and are not available for Nominee presumably while exit polls are becoming public.

On Drudge I'm reading Romney 42%, McCain 30% for 0.59% of votes in. Woohoo!

Ow! Now its 35%/32% for 4.38% of votes. I should be in bed. It's nearly 2am in London.

Fox calls it for Romney. Paul Mirengoff at Powerline writes:

So who is the front-runner now? There is none.

@ 2 golds,2 silver
@ most delegates
@ most votes
@ most money
@ Limbaugh hates McCain and Huckabee for nominee
@ Conservatives hate McCain and Huckabee for nominee
@ Giuliani's done nothing to date (and I suspect his health)
@ Thompson's done nothing. (But would make a good running mate. Note he's starting on McCain now, but he's fairly gentle with Romney).

Paul Mirengoff has his head where the sun don't shine.

Now it's 40%/30% for 20% of votes. Time for bed. Mick makes a good point - Nevada's next alongside S.Carolina. That's worth 34 delegates against SC's 24. Bed! bed!

Fairly Super Tuesday

It's a big day:

1. Michigan Primary Day - there's plenty of positive and negative momentum at stake. Down, McCain! You've been the most effective anti-conservative influence in the country for years. Were you a Democrat, you might have done some good. You're like a male stripper at a rugby club night out - right man, wrong party. Down, mighty McCain, down in the hole!


2. Macworld 2008 Keynote - this year's virtuoso session with Steve Jobs. I saw him in London in the early 90's giving a 2 hour NeXT demo and was impressed by the assurance of this man who'd been fired from Apple mark 1. [As an aside, the original World Wide Web system was developed on a NeXT machine.] The big rumour for today is that il miglior fabbro will announce an ultraportable, the Airbook, dispensing with dvd drive, spinning hard drive, ethernet conection, but using flash memory and wifi only.
Drool.. Note the wing shaped profile..oooh. Turn on a fan, tip the Airbook to a slight angle of attack and it will sit in space 6 inches above your knees. Cool. What it needs is a decent docking station...an iMac minus its innards with a slot at the top to drop in the Airbook.

I will wash myself in ten pound notes

If Romney wins the Presidency, I win about $40,000 as I bet £1,000 on Romney at 20-1. Since then Fred's eviscerated Huckabee:
..and now McCain's getting his clock cleaned by Limbaugh, Levin, and Santorum. Romney took his heaviest fire weeks ago and really that boils down to a single idea - that he's a flip-flopper (oh, and a Mormon). The flip-flop meme echoes the 2004 case against Kerry, which worked pretty well because it's true, but

Michigan Democrats should vote for Mitt Romney, because if Mitt wins, Democrats win. [says King Kos]

Democrats view Mitt Romney as weak? They're fooling themselves....Democrats will try to run the same "He's a flip-flopper" campaign that we successfully destroyed Kerry with, but there are some key differences here. John Kerry flipped, flopped, and flipped again. Mitt Romney has consistently shifted rightward throughout his career. John Kerry was an ugly, boring, dull, unlikeable man. Mitt Romney is an intelligent, articulate, likeable Conservative. Let Kos plan, it'll only hurt their chances in November.

Add that Romney's a Governor, Kerry's a Senator; Romney made his money, Kerry married his; Ann Romney is an asset, Teresa Heinz Kerry was a liability; Romney's right, Kerry's wrong. No contest.

In a long campaign substance has a way of working it's way through to the public consciousness despite the msm's bs, so my politics still boil down to "bet on the Mormon."

?

By what rationale do political opponents get to vote for the Republican or Democrat Nominee in some states ? In a tight race, as this may be on both sides, it's possible that the decisive votes for each party's nominee will come from the other side ! I hereby claim copyright to the comic and sinister possibilities of a plot based on this idea.

The last days of the Roman Empire

The full faith and credit of the United States ain't what they used to be and depend on my children and yours to honour our debts. I love my children, so making them pay for my fecklessness can't be bad. I feel the love. They'll feel the IRS tickling their collar. So pay no heed to the rating agencies or the comptroller general, after all our children will have learnt this life lesson from us: stick it on the next generation.

Back in London

Christmas present - a daughter is studying with Martin Amis and gave me a signed copy of my favourite novel :The view from my room at dawn:

What we know we know

One candidate..

..has most delegates to date
..has most votes to date
..has the most money
..isn't balding
..is a governor not a senator
..has self-control

but facts are deceptive as the Boston Globe points out in a news report:

Mitt Romney, unable to refocus his message and prove his authenticity to New Hampshire's fiercely independent and fiscally conservative voters, yesterday suffered a second defeat in six days, leaving his presidential campaign strategy in tatters.

Musing on the New Hampshire Primary

As I watch this stuff and measure my perceptions against others', I have to admit that I'm an outlier. I just can't see how anyone, anyone cannot see what a phony McCain is, how old he acts, how snide his speech, how fake his smile. "My friends" spoken by McCain is just emetic. But I still tell myself I'm a prophet of The Wisdom of Crowds once the crowd digests the key information. The pack attack on Romney has divided him from the pack. The Romney/Huckabee-McCain interactions seemed those of adult to adolescent. So I forecast that many independents in NH will surge to Obama, others will be turned off McCain (and Huckabee) and conservatives will vote Romney. My wonkish interest exceeds that of the average primary voter, but I sense that this will be an upset for Mitt that will catapult him to the Nomination. If not, at least I'll better understand the lack of correspondence between The Wisdom Of Crowds and the wisdom of Mark. Eheu.

P.S. Now a Rasmussen poll taken after Saturday's pack attack but before Sunday's debate shows Romney catching up to a statistical tie with McCain. But note:

Rasmussen Markets data shows that John McCain has an 85.6% chance of winning in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney is given a 16.5% chance. The numbers referenced in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to [..] add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

I'm gambling on the Mormon

I just got odds of 20-1 against Romney to win the Presidency. Maybe the UK bookie hadn't seen this from last night:

Iowa, my 2 cents

Hillary was repudiated across a broad spectrum on a heavy turnout. That's prophetic. Romney was beaten by an identity group voting en bloc against the grain of its main policy preoccupation, illegal immigration. That's a special case.

This is a good test for Romney, which I think he'll pass. Don't flail, show good humour, stay loosely presidential, rack up respectable scores in many states, let the reality of Huckabee or McCain concentrate conservative minds. That will do it in the absence of another capable, across the board conservative. There's no reason to take cues from the liberal media who fear and loathe Romney and want to brand him loser.

The odds against Romney winning the Presidency are 16-1. I'll take a piece of that. Compare 15/8 against Obama.